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Superdelegate 101: Bernie Only Has An 11% Chance Of Winning The Nomination

superdelegate
Ted Rall
Written by Ted Rall

Judging from superdelegate reports, the contest is over. Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic nomination for president, says Ted Rall. Here’s how he knows.

ted rall superdelegates bernie sanders ted rall talks to bernie sandersaNewDomain — It’s over. It’s over before it’s begun.

Hillary Clinton has already won the Democratic nomination for president.

Before a single Iowa caucusgoer or New Hampshire voter or any other American voter has had a chance to weigh in, Hillary has it all wrapped up.

The die is cast.

The game is fixed.

It doesn’t matter how many Democrats “feel the Bern” — despite the tens of thousands of young people filling sports arenas all over the country because they’re excited about the socialist senator from Vermont’s message that it’s time for a “political revolution” that prioritizes working people and takes back the wealth getting sucked out of the economy by the “billionaire class.”

superdelegate

Blame it on the superdelegates. “Superdelegates are convention delegates who can support any candidate, no matter whom voters choose in the primaries and caucuses. They are members of Congress and other elected officials, party leaders and members of the Democratic National Committee,” explains the Associated Press.

“Hillary Rodham Clinton has locked up public support from half of the Democratic insiders who will cast ballots at the party’s national convention, giving her a big head start in securing the nomination more than two months before primary voters start going to the polls.” The 712 superdelegates make up about 30 percent of the 2,382 delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.

Of the 80 percent  of superdelegates willing to fess up their affiliation, 359 support Clinton. Eight plan to vote for Bernie Sanders and two for Martin O’Malley, the former Maryland governor who made a splash at Saturday’s Democratic debate. Exactly 210 of them say they’re uncommitted.”

Says the AP, “Clinton’s margin over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is especially notable because most of the people known as superdelegates don’t usually back candidates so early in the race.”

Nate Silver’s 538 political analysis blog currently gives Sanders a 13 percent chance of taking the Democratic nomination.

Could Sanders still win? That depends on how much you’re willing to bet on 13 percent.”

Lots of things have happened to you with far longer odds: Being the one car in a cluster of automobiles driving the same velocity to get singled out by a cop for a speeding ticket probably beat those odds by a lot.

On the other hand, would you invest $1,000 in a stock with a 13 percent chance of going up and an 87 percent chance of dropping in value? Probably not.

Given the dutiful, less than thrilling support among Hillary’s Democrats versus the energized progressives backing Bernie, it might be time to rethink the superdelegate system, or abolish it entirely in favor of a more small-d democratic one — you know, in which every vote counts equally. Despite conventional wisdom that says staid moderates stand a better chance in the general election against the Republicans, opting for the “safe” choice often leads to electoral disaster. In 2004 John Kerry didn’t prove a better candidate than Howard Dean.

The Sanders vs. Clinton race recalls 1980, when Ted Kennedy challenged incumbent Jimmy Carter, Kennedy being defeated by arcane delegate rule changes jammed through by DNC bosses.”

Liberals disgruntled by Carter’s centrist policies sat on their hands in the fall, contributing to the party’s defeat to Ronald Reagan.

True, Bernie Sanders might win. Hillary could fall ill. She could find herself embroiled in a scandal; she is a Clinton, after all. But why should Sanders, or any other party “outsider,” begin his fight for the nomination 359 delegates in the hole?

Democrats like to say they’re the party of the people.

Maybe they should let the people choose their president. Crazy, I know.

For aNewDomain, I’m Ted Rall.

Cover image: SatireV.org, All Rights Reserved; image one: Brainrow.com, All Rights Reserved.

About the author

Ted Rall

Ted Rall

Based in New York, Ted Rall is aNewDomain's chief commentator and a nationally syndicated editorial cartoonist. A Pulitzer nominee, Rall's latest book is the NYT bestselling book, Trump: A Graphic Biography.
Support his work and see his toons first at his site on Petreon.

  • Yea… 13%
    Is it my imagination or did Hillary and the DNC use the same False Conflation against Obama in 2008?
    Um… we KNOW how that worked out!

    • aabb4455

      you Bernie supporters are delusional morons living in denial. President Hillary Clinton, say it with me you loser Bernie bot.

    • aabb4455

      you delusional Bernie bots better call the wambulance. hahaha

      • God

        you delusional Hillary zombies are what hurts and ruins Jewmerika!

        • aabb4455

          You Bernie bots are DELUSIONAL MORONS

    • aabb4455

      Nate Silver’s 538 political analysis blog currently gives Sanders a 13 percent chance of taking the Democratic nomination.

      😉

      • SaTaN

        Fk “Nate Silverberg” and why do we always have to give two shits about what some dumb gay joo thinks? Oh, right, cause we live in Jewmerika! Hilary IS a joo and a liar and a kunt and should be shot!

        • aabb4455

          May your loved ones get terminal cancer and die from it.

        • aabb4455

          Conservatism is a mental disease that needs to be eradicated. May your
          loved ones get terminal cancer and die from it. Chris Kyle and Andrew
          breitbart are GOOD DEAD CONSERVATIVE PARASITES……

  • Audrey R.

    It’s important to remember that Hillary also has the support of approximately 70 percent of Democratic voters – millions of voters who are indeed very enthusiastic about her. This continual rant that the system is rigged on behalf of Hillary gets boring. Hillary is a stronger and more effective candidate, she has a stellar and comprehensive resume, and she’s running a good campaign. Being conversant in the lingo of foreign policy is a tremendous plus for her, as well.

    • aabb4455

      well said.

      • SaTaN

        Audry Rosenberg YOU ARE a fkn typical brainless and blinded liberal joo RETARD!
        TOO many of YOU useless twats on this fkn earth!
        Wake the fk up and smell REALITY NOW!, You sheer ASSHOLE!
        Everyone else, just remember, what she really IS! Stellar resume? Oooh,I beg to differ, stupid fks!
        Hilary
        IS and always has been a HUGE LIAR, a SNEAK, a murderer-(see her old
        bed-buddy Vince Foster for one of her victims), a thief, a FRAUD and a typical
        filthy nutty JOO kunt! She is NO GOOD and WILL only hurt the country
        with her fake liberal sissy ass-kissing agenda and her sheer hunger for
        power, money and fame!

        ANYONE who votes for that still in the closet
        dyke should be shot asap! These days demoturds ARE seriously weak
        minded, brainless retarded liberal fags (like Audry R (R for RETARD) who all need to be told what to
        do and when to do it and will just suck up to any lie Hilary spits out
        at them, they always fkn do! That’s why she is still undeserving-ly
        running for public offices she has NO business being in even after all her illegal activities and
        missteps that demoturds somehow never seem to see nor hear about and ARE always blind and deaf to! Fk Hilary and fk anyone who wastes a vote on that entirely wrong for society bitch!

    • Hilary can make false promises (following the lead of Sanders’s campaign) of reform and win the primary. However, the democrats will not win against Trump if its Hilary, once her serious email scandals and cover-up starts blowing up after the primary, as the investigations moves forward. Bernie’s support will start growing as more and more people (especially the minorities, too busy working over 60 hrs a week to follow the debates and campaigns on social media) hears about his name, either from non-mainstream corporate media, or word of mouth. If Clinton somehow gets nominated, I doubt the many supporters who have funded Bernie (many of which are low income earners, some being under-employed, or working excessive hours but underpaid, or struggling working several jobs to make ends meet) would be excited enough about the actual election to be willing spend their precious time and transport money to vote for a corporate puppet. A strategic vote to prevent the disaster of a republican extremists from winning the US presidency is to (register as a democrat and) vote to nominate Sanders in the primary.

      Trump boasts that he funds his own campaign. However, Trump is THE CORPORATE!!

  • Hilary can make false promises (following the lead of Sanders’s campaign) of reform and win the primary. However, the democrats will not win against Trump if its Hilary, once her serious email scandals and cover-up starts blowing up after the primary, as the investigations moves forward. Bernie’s support will start growing as more and more people (especially the minorities, too busy working over 60 hrs a week to follow the debates and campaigns on social media) hears about his name, either from non-mainstream corporate media, or word of mouth. If Clinton somehow gets nominated, I doubt the many supporters who have funded Bernie (many of which are low income earners, some being under-employed, or working excessive hours but underpaid, or struggling working several jobs to make ends meet) would be excited enough about the actual election to be willing spend their precious time and transport money to vote for a corporate puppet. A strategic vote to prevent the disaster of a republican extremists from winning the US presidency is to (register as a democrat and) vote to nominate Sanders in the primary.

    Trump boasts that he funds his own campaign. However, Trump is THE CORPORATE!

  • This is a great reason to do away with superdelegates and the electoral college. MoveOn is right: let the people’s vote make the decision.

  • reginabee

    So you are saying that DEMOCRACY IS DEAD, Ted?